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Let's consider what we've learned and imagine the perfect grocery retailer for Covid. It would be a retailer that wouldn't have a building so shoppers could avoid lining up to get in, navigating one-way aisles and meeting potentially infectious crowds. It would be a retailer where shoppers could save time and avoid a slow, laborious trip to the store, a trip during which they might even find the items they were looking for are out of stock. It would be a retailer where shoppers could avoid encountering the Coronavirus by buying groceries from the safety of their own homes. As a bonus, this retailer would have great price perception, because why not save money as well as stay safe and save time?

Turns out we don't have to imagine this retailer. We just have to look in our pockets and touch an app on our phones to find it. Or reside in one of the cities with Amazon Go or Amazon Fresh stores with smart baskets and walk-out and pay technology for speedy check-out.

Covid created a perfect storm that played right into the unique strengths of Amazon's customer value proposition. Amazon easily blew every other retailer out of the water on our Covid Momentum Metric and customer Safety ratings. The distance between Amazon and second place on these measures is much wider than the distance between second place and the rest of the pack.

Edge Ascential estimates that Amazon will grow grocery market share easily more than any other retailer in the U.S., picking up +0.731% of the U.S. grocery share (this increase is just for This increase – about 3x higher than 2nd placer retailer Target on the Covid Momentum Metric – equates to $5.8B, compared to if Amazon had just held market share steady. And Edge Ascential may be underselling Amazon's potential 2020 performance, since they predict a year-over-year grocery sales growth rate of only ~33%. In Q2 of 2020, Amazon reportedly tripled their online grocery sales. In Q3, only online sales in total were stated, but this rose 49% for Amazon, and online grocery has been growing faster than general eCommerce.

For retailers who aren't Amazon, does this mean they should rush even faster than they already are to expand their click and collect and delivery capabilities? Not necessarily. Online grocery shopping is still a hard place to make profits for most, and from the ability to subsidize their grocery business with profits made in other business units like Amazon can. Additionally, we've covered in previous versions of the RPI what prerequisites are for a great eCommerce platform to also deliver great overall top line growth. Many regional grocers struggle with these prerequisites, namely great Price perception and a product category DNA that is strong in center store, non-perishable items. Lastly, eCommerce's share of grocery sales was ~5.0% in 2019 according to Edge Ascential, and even though it is set to grow ~50% for 2020, that still puts eCommerce's share of grocery sales. So, if you're a legacy brick and mortar retailer, your customers, even after the Covid eCommerce bump, will be getting most of their groceries from your physical stores. If you do invest in eCommerce to chase top line growth and provide a competitive response to Amazon, there must not be any drop-off in the Quality of the store experience or an increase in Prices – two things which would harm a retailer's Value Core and hinder their chances of long-term success with customers.

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Last March, when we realized the potential impact that COVID-19 might have on all aspects of our lives, dunnhumby launched a survey to understand how the virus would affect consumers food shopping habits. It was designed to help our clients better meet the needs of their Customers by seeing the impact of the virus through their customers eyes.

Little did we know at the time that one year later we would still be dealing with the impact Covid-19. This study presents the results of the sixth global wave of the study and the seventh wave for the United States. Other waves were conducted in March, April, May, July, September and November of 2020. This wave was conducted in February 2021.

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The Great Recession programmed lasting value-consciousness into the minds of consumers. How might COVID-19 rewire us again?

The fourth annual dunnhumby Retailer Preference Index for U.S. Grocery (RPI) sheds light on what makes a retail winner, and how the pandemic has impacted consumer shopping behaviors. Known as retail's equivalent of the Gartner Magic Quadrant, the RPI surveyed about 10,000 consumers to understand what's driving customer preference and rank the top 57 grocery retailers in the United States.

Join dunnhumby CEO Guillaume Bacuvier as he dives into the latest study, revealing the levers for success, and which retailers are winning the hearts, and wallets, of shoppers today.

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In order to reflect on how the grocery world changed in 2020, we have changed how we calculate our overall Grocery RPI score. Given the historically unique metrics we've witnessed in the economy, the restaurant industry and the grocery industry, along with the rare influence a global pandemic has brought to consumer behavior, we're viewing grocery success in 2020 through a different lens than we viewed grocery success in prior years.

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In this series, dunnhumby tours the globe and speaks with some of the world's greatest brands, exploring their biggest challenges and how they are using customer data science to meet those challenges.