Strategies during the Pandemic: Protecting Employees and managing Price & Promotions
April 04 2020
Blog
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Since our update last week on How Food Retailers and Manufacturers are Serving and Protecting their Customers in the midst of the Coronavirus, food and pharmacy retailers and their suppliers continue to work tirelessly and heroically – in the face of health risks to themselves – to ensure their customers are able to feed themselves and their loved ones.
As the crisis continues to escalate, this week we look at how retailers are putting employees first and protecting them as part of a Customer First strategy, as well as determining the right way to offer value for money to customers and future considerations for pricing and promotion strategies.
Many governments around the globe have turned to formally classifying grocery, pharmacy and convenience store employees as "essential" and "emergency" workers due to the critical nature of their role in keeping stores open to feed and care for their communities. However, also understanding that these workers are exposing themselves to possible health risks, many retailers rolled out a series of safety protocols over the last week including:
Over the last week, we have also seen associations and outside industries providing resources and sharing workers with the grocery sector. The International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA) has partnered with The Food Industry Association (FMI) to provide excess foodservice resources to the grocery sector. In addition, foodservice distributors with unused capacity — including products, transportation and warehousing services — are connecting with food retailers seeking more supply. Some quick service restaurant franchisees have agreed to provide their staff to local grocers to both help their employees continue working and to fill manpower needs for the grocers. Some grocers have partnered with hard hit sectors in the service industry including travel, entertainment and hospitality to have their furloughed workers transition over to grocery stores and distribution centres.
Each phase of the crisis will necessitate a different level of promotional intensity by retailers. For those regions still in the early weeks of the pandemic, retailers need help in managing intense demand in order to relieve the pressure on store operations.
Here are some of the actions retailers are taking now in Phase 1 of the crisis:
1. Value for money will become a heightened driver of behaviour as consumers face a depressed global economy. We see this leading to 1) Further Private Brand differentiation and expansion; 2) Deeper investment in base prices on key lines; 3) Fewer, more efficient promotions; 4) Focus on driving cash profit over % margin.
2. A Customer First approach to pricing and promotion (and ranging) is still the right answer. The good news is that consumer-data-led frameworks such as Key Value Items (KVIs), the Balanced Matrix and Category Roles, Seven Levers of Value Perception – will continue to be appropriate for informing strategic and tactical decisions going forward.
3. Disruptive pricing and promotion models are expanding as a result of consumer behavior changes during the pandemic. We believe that the crisis will trigger a tipping point for retailers to switch from the paper flyer to more digital communication through their website and app, with a more urgent value in making this personal. In-store media will become more important and impactful as well. Subscription models are being adopted by retailers such as "Delivery Savers to help manage online demand. Online pure-players are pointing the way to opportunities for new pricing bundles and subscriptions on "destination" areas, in concert with suppliers.
In this time of unprecedented challenges for businesses, employees, and shoppers, Customer First principles should play a key role in every retailer's strategy. Not just for protecting employees and frontline workers so they can continue to serve their communities, but to prepare for the changing Customer needs as the pandemic develops.
Convenient locations, one-stop shopability, and right product variety make up the Convenience pillar. Convenience is the least important factor for explaining short-term market share gains, and retailers in each of the four Covid Momentum Quartiles performed similarly on Convenience.
customers favored Speed during Covid, which correlates negatively with larger format stores where customers can do all their shopping at once. Moreover, evolving commuting behaviors from people working from home and limited mobility due to stay-at-home orders shifted which stores were now considered Convenient. While people were adjusting to new ways of shopping for food, and making trade-offs on Price and product quality and variety, they were being hit with out-of-stocks, which affected their ability to easily buy their typical brands.
Despite stay-at-home orders, changes in commuting behaviors and erratic outof-stocks (or perhaps because of these things), basket sizes were up and visits per customer were down for every retailer we studied. At the time we surveyed, the average basket size was ~30% higher for shoppers in the market. Additionally, the average share of wallet that customers were giving to their current grocery retailer was ~14% higher. Translation: customers consolidated their shopping to fewer stores, giving more money to each store. This occurred even for stores that were competitively less well-positioned for one-stop-shopability heading into Covid. In fact, stores that scored in the lowest quartile on "I can do all my shopping at this one store" had the largest increases in basket size and share of wallet during Covid. In other words, during Covid, shoppers were more forgiving of a retailers' faults in their quest to fulfil their short-term shopping needs and get home quickly and safely.
"With work at home - I cannot shop at the grocery stores I usually shop at because they are in the town where I work - 30 minutes away and feel wasteful driving that far just for groceries."
customers' overall price perceptions for each banner drive this pillar. Price has been the dominant driver of long-term preference in the grocery industry. Over the past three years, the importance of Price was marginally declining as the economy strengthened but was still the most important driver in 2019. During 2020, however, Price was less important as consumers looked to get in-and-out as quickly as possible and scrambled to simply find items in-stock.
Price perceptions are also correlated with how far shoppers will travel and how emotionally connected they are to the store. Simply put, shoppers will travel longer distances for better prices and are more likely to be satisfied with retailers with strong price perception. Additionally, Price perception is much more likely to be positively impacted by better base prices than by relevant discounts and promotions.
So, how has Covid changed the competitive dynamic? As mentioned above, the Price is the top driver in explaining long-term performance in previous reports, but for driving short-term financial performance during the Covid Era alone, Price dropped behind Speed, Digital, and Discounts, Rewards & Information. This shift in customer needs aligns nicely with traditional banners, who have historically done well on Speed and Discounts, Rewards & Information, but poorly on Price. This also helps explain why traditional banners like Food Lion, Albertson's and Winn Dixie performed well in 2020, while powerhouse banners like Walmart, Costco and Trader Joe's have stumbled a bit.
Also, in a year of rapidly growing prices and the chaos resulting from the virus, we saw traditional banners improve their Price perception scores more than any other channel. We don't expect that traditional retailers did anything much different, but we hypothesize that their Speed and Safety scores helped to create a Price perception halo and that customers felt EDLP competition had less reliable and consistent pricing than they typically had. More relative value was delivered by traditional banners and that translated in improved Price perception for many shoppers. However, we expect Price perception across banners to return to their pre-Covid levels once the dust settles in the back half of 2021 and 2022. The two tables on the right highlight the gains made by traditional grocers with regards to Price perception. The first table below shows the First Quartile banners for Price. Only four of the fourteen banners are traditional banners, and they include Market Basket, H-E-B, ShopRite and Fareway. The remaining ten banners fall into mass, warehouse, or discount channels which is consistent with the three previous RPI studies. However, when we look at the notable gainers in the second table, all those jumping more than five ranks are traditional banners. Although Price was less important this year, these gains by traditional banners also helps to explain why they did so well in 2020.
We also expect that, long-term in a post-Covid world where supply chains are back to normal and pricing signals are once again clear, Price will be the dominant driver for choosing a preferred retailer. This could also be amplified if the much of the country experiences economic struggles and government stimulus is delayed or non-existent. The structural damage to the economy is still not fully understood and the more damage that occurs during the virus, the longer it will take for the economy to fully bounce back.
"I only buy where I can pick up groceries without leaving my car, but I must purchase minimum $35. If I only need a carton of milk, I just have to wait until I need 5 or 6 cartons, or enough other things to add up. I almost always end up spending too much."
The retail sector has experienced both of these extremes, with some seeing strong sales while others have been forced into bankruptcy and liquidation.
What we have seen is an acceleration of trends that were in motion prior to the pandemic but are now even more essential for success. One such trend is, understandably, the enhanced focus in retail on health and wellness. This is not a new phenomenon especially within Retail Pharmacy as "buy and build" expansion pushed the market towards saturation. More savvy competition, both within the sector, as well as grocery, mass merchant, and ecommerce began to expand into Health & Beauty (H&B) and prescriptions.
Prescription benefit managers (PBMs) grew increasingly powerful and began demanding lower reimbursement terms and restricted access to customers. Some even set up their own mail order prescription businesses and became direct competitors. This direct attack on the pharmacy business model, combined with the erosion of the convenience advantage forced chains to find other ways to extend their reach. For many, the answer lay in diversification and, specifically, the integration of products and services that had previously sat with dedicated medical providers.
Faced with limited development prospects, retail pharmacies once again needed to re-examine their offering and carve out a distinctive customer proposition.
In the US, prescription medicines account for around two-thirds of retail pharmacy revenues¹. As a result, repeat business is vital. Clinical services – a longer-term, more consultative offering than pure dispensary – can help to encourage ongoing business by building a stronger relationship between pharmacist and patient.
With that in mind, it's little wonder that for many retail pharmacies in the mid-2000s, the decision to expand into clinical services seemed like a natural evolution.
CVS, Walgreens and others went through a flurry of acquisitions, purchasing small health service companies up and down the US. In-store facilities were rolled out to capture new clinical business and commence the shift into a wider "health services" offering.
Certain activities, such as immunizations, had successful starts. But the growth of these clinics and their services rapidly dropped off and it soon became apparent that success would not be as readily won as those retailers may have hoped.
One major problem lay deep in the complex inner workings of US healthcare. Limited by their insurance plan benefit structures, customers would often find themselves unable to access the full range of services offered in-store. Clinical service costs, while usually lower than those available at a hospital or doctor's office, would likely be higher than the insured co-pay price paid by the consumer at the latter.
Retailers quickly learned that in order to integrate into the healthcare industry, they would need to learn how to influence and control it as well.
CVS, which made the strongest initial investment into in-store clinics, has spent more than a decade in pursuit of that goal. Major product decisions, such as the removal of tobacco from stores (itself a $1bn annual business) were executed in the name of a slow repositioning towards healthcare.
Strategic acquisitions have only helped to further that ambition. With its first major vertical healthcare purchase – that of PBM Caremark in 2006 – CVS gained control of the levers of customer access and prescription reimbursement for millions of lives. 13 years later, with the acquisition of Aetna, the company added the ability to provide health, dental, vision and other insurance plans to customers.
Taken to its logical conclusion, this trajectory could lead to the eventual formation of an integrated healthcare system supported by some 10,000 points of service.
There is growing evidence that an empire of that kind is firmly in the retailer's plans. CVS has already announced its intention to evolve clinics into more expansive "Health Hubs", bringing enhanced services to 1,500 locations by 2021. Health Hubs include more space devoted to clinical services and a broader focus on proactive wellness and nutrition alongside extensive health services.
That wider remit is immediately evident in an enhanced product assortment, one that includes numerous specialized items and categories for maintaining health and preventative wellness products –. And, perhaps influenced by insights delivered by Aetna, CVS has also chosen to put significant emphasis on chronic condition management, an area that can provide a pharmacy with some of its most valuable customers.
While CVS is playing a highly strategic game, though, it is by no means the only player to watch.
As the world's largest retailer, just about anything Walmart does is reason for the competition to pay attention. It may have taken more than a quarter of a century for Walmart to start selling groceries after all, but the retail behemoth now holds top position in that segment in North America by an overwhelming margin.
With that precedent in mind, and in light of Walmart now holding the position as the nation's third largest retail pharmacy provider, it seems likely that another fierce battle for the future of retail pharma is about to begin.
Launched in fall 2019, the Walmart Health Care Clinic serves as a good indicator as to the strength of the company's ambitions.
Staffed to deliver an expansive set of services that range from primary care and disease management through to dental, hearing, nutrition and fitness, these sleek, modern facilities offer the same one-stop-shop approach as Walmart's core store.
Moreover, Health Care Clinics also employ the company's "everyday low pricing" model, something that makes for a compelling proposition regardless of insurance coverage. Medicare and Medicaid are both accepted too, encompassing what is likely a significant number of customers.
Similar at their core yet, subtly different, these offerings from CVS and Walmart represent a dramatic shift in healthcare delivery in the US.
While the scale of each remains too small at this point to draw many conclusions, those small differences could carve out room enough for both to flourish. CVS' focus on providing specialist-level health and chronic condition care is different enough from Walmart's "low price, one-stop shop" approach to appeal to a distinct group of customers.
Rather than between each other, the biggest challenges ahead for CVS and Walmart may actually be found within. As both companies make fundamental changes in order to facilitate a future in which healthcare is a significant part of their offering, they will need to focus on evolving their relationships with their long-term customers too.
CVS, for instance, will need to ask customers to reconcile the idea that a company that continues to dominate in snacks and candy is now an active participant in their healthcare. And Walmart, famed for its leadership in building highly efficient operations, will need to scale and sustain a healthcare business rooted in flat, affordable pricing, as well as build the credibility as a viable provider of quality healthcare.
Neither challenge is easy. But if history has taught us anything, it's that when companies of this size decide to redefine an industry from the ground-up, they tend to succeed.
The arrival of Covid-19 also introduces a new reality unthinkable less than a year ago. Health and wellness permeates all aspects of our lives and vigilance is essential to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
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Retail leaders must objectively understand how their business currently considers Customers before trying to set a more Customer-centric direction and focus. There are some formal assessment methodologies, like dunnhumby's Retail Preference Index (RPI) and Customer Centricity Assessment (CCA), which offer detailed evaluations of a business' capabilities, strengths and weaknesses based on Customer perceptions (RPI) or global best practices (CCA).
The approach outlined below is not intended to replace these formal tools; rather, these observations are intended as a kind of 'toe in the water' to help retail leaders form early hypotheses and points of views. These are rules of thumb, heuristics culled from global experience. Later, leaders might use these observations to informally check progress from time to time as a way of assessing whether the "program in the stores matches the program in our heads".
Hence, the context and laboratory for these suggestions is the retail store, where the rubber meets the road, so to speak.
Walking around a store (or better, walking around several), can give many clues toward understanding a retailer's attitude about its Customers, as well as revealing some of the challenges ahead for installing Customer First. As Customers ourselves, we are qualified to assess an organization's 'readiness' for Customer First, simply starting by walking around.
How a Customer experiences the store shapes their perception of the brand, and there are dozens (even hundreds) of 'moments of truth' for Customers in each shopping trip – opportunities for the retailer to win more loyalty, or indeed to lose it. And it only takes one 'bad' experience to erase all the good.
Leaders can form an opinion about the Customers' true shopping experience by observing 'Who really runs the store?' – a way to put on a Customer lens to assess if the Customer, the retailer, the supplier, or no one is driving shopping experience decisions, like range and presentation. For example:
Of course, analysing any available loyalty data will later tell us how Customers shop the category and that might well be by brand (or flavour or size, etc., and will certainly vary by section). But this first assessment helps us begin to form our perspective on how tuned-in the business is around its Customers, and about where within the business leaders might need to begin to install insights and the Customer language.
Store signage not only delivers a written message, but also a type of 'body language' that Customers tune in to, albeit not always consciously. Look around the store to see both the written and hidden messages, and hear the tone being communicated: ask, do messages speak respectfully to Customers? For example:
While walking the store, traveling through stock rooms and the employee break room, note the signage and messaging aimed at staff. What seems to be valued more – numbers or people?
What policies and rules guide employee behaviour?
How are they expected to interact with Customers?
Are the messages respectful of staff? Of Customers?
What do signs say about the culture around Customers?
dunnhumby's Loyalty Drivers analysis suggests that Customers exhibit four 'mindsets' in their shopping journey – Discover, Shop, Buy, and Reflect. One element of the 'Reflect' mind-set includes the decision to return, exchange, or to request a refund when the product or service does not quite suit.
On your store walk, observe who has the power to satisfy Customers making a return or wanting a refund: is the front-line employee empowered to satisfy the Customer, or must the Manager be called? Is there one 'service' desk where Customers must queue to get their money back, or can the helpful cashier make it good on the spot?
Examine the return policy to assess its sensibility and ease from a Customer viewpoint. For example, must a Customer act within 7 or 30 days, and is a receipt required and signature under penalty of perjury? Is the taking of an oath necessary, or perhaps a drop of blood? The store's practice says volumes about who deserves trust in the eyes of the business. Requiring levels of approvals and higher management involvement (or some other form of hoop-jumping) is neither trusting of employees nor Customers.
The return / refund policies and practices are strong indicators of a company's readiness for, or progress along the Customer-centric journey. Customer First organizations give front-line employees broader authority to resolve Customer needs, and extend the power to satisfy Customers to most members of staff, in some form. For best practices in this area, please see the policies from Nordstrom in the U.S. and Ritz-Carlton globally.
Senior leaders set the tone for how Customers are regarded and treated in the business both by their words and their actions, of course. And the C.E.O.S – Customers, Employees, Owners, and Suppliers – all take notice. It's widely documented that leaders who walk the walk are more effective than those who only talk the talk.
One simple yet powerful way to assess readiness and progress is seeing how leadership's walk and talk align. A word cloud, like the one illustrated below, makes the point very clear. In this example, recent shareholder statements (same quarter) were compared for two companies on a Customer-centric journey. We can see different progress in a form of 'walking the walk' at Retailer X and Retailer Y. The C.E.O.S are hearing what really matters to the leaders, and are forming the Customer culture accordingly, all the way down to store level.
The store shapes Customers' perception of the brand; there are hundreds of opportunities for the retailer to win or lose loyalty in each shopping trip. Customers take clues, consciously and unconsciously, throughout their entire shopping experience, and draw conclusions about retailer warmth and attitude toward shoppers. And it only takes one disappointing experience to erase all the good.
Retail leaders must take an objective assessment of the shopping experience using a Customer lens to understand their current state and readiness for customer centricity. Pay close attention to the body language and tone of your policies. Store signage, employee empowerment and communications, and practices around assortment and presentation are clear indicators of the organization's attitude about the Customer.
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"Retail is detail" is common industry wisdom, and it means that achieving success is subtle and difficult. Success in any field demands practice and experience, and so it is little wonder that many senior retail and brand leaders and managers have vast years of involvement, and that most have grown up through the business in progressive steps.
Accordingly, business decisions are heavily based on experience, and more often on personal memory of choices and executions and how a thing has traditionally been done. As Chris Foltz, director of operations at Heinen's Fine Foods, told me, "Our industry, and our company, was very opinion-based, albeit expert opinions. We realized early on that we needed data on customer needs, customer satisfaction and customer buying behavior to improve our decision-making. As we adopted this metric-driven approach, I believe we prioritized our investments and effort to deliver a better customer experience."
These are a just few of the things that most retailers absolutely know for sure:
The old axioms are no longer factual because customers themselves have dramatically changed, in their needs, expectations and experiences. Separating fact from fiction—and business truths from myths—will change how the business sees itself and how it will make decisions. The following are some of the new truths of retailing in the 21st century:
Agility in retail can only be maintained by understanding customers and using data in all available quantitative and qualitative forms. Here's a personal story to illustrate:
A perception-based research tool measured one retailer's progress against factors that customers themselves had said are most important to them. Before the first customer perception report was published, I set out to learn how the customer ranking compared to the rankings that the senior decision-makers would assign.
The regular weekly senior team meeting brought together many of the wisest and most seasoned leaders in the business. After briefly introducing the research methodology, I asked the team to list what factors they thought customers would list as important, and in what order they thought customers would place them.
Not surprisingly, each merchant tended to rank factors in their department higher on the list than those for other parts of the store. Although little agreement was reached, a compromise ranking was eventually defined.
Comparing our list to the customers' list revealed spectacular differences; leaders had listed most of the same elements as did customers, but in completely the wrong order. That day, the team experienced a true epiphany—they realized that "we didn't know what we didn't know."
The lessons learned were:
David Ciancio is global customer strategist for Dunnhumby, a pioneer in customer data science, serving the world's most customer-centric brands in a number of industries, including retail. David has 48 years' experience in retail, 25 of which were in store management. He can be reached at david.ciancio@dunnhumby.com