In order to reflect on how the grocery world changed in 2020, we have changed how we calculate our overall Grocery RPI score. Given the historically unique metrics we've witnessed in the economy, the restaurant industry and the grocery industry, along with the rare influence a global pandemic has brought to consumer behavior, we're viewing grocery success in 2020 through a different lens than we viewed grocery success in prior years.
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The Prophets of Aisle Six is the first online reality series focusing on innovation in the food retail industry. Join Jose Gomes, dunnhumby's North America Managing Director, in this season premiere as he travels to Sacramento to visit with executives from Raley's Supermarkets, a prominent grocery chain with more than 120 locations in California and Nevada, and learns more about the company's unique mission to help customers make more healthy eating decisions. Jose is joined by Raley's CEO Michael Teel, COO Keith Knopf, and Wellness Evangelist, Emmie Satrazemis, as they discuss how they're leveraging customer data science to make the company's mission come alive in a way that's both effective and sustainable.
In this series, dunnhumby tours North America and speaks with some of the world's greatest brands, exploring their biggest challenges and how they are using customer data science to meet those challenges. Check back next time as we head to Cleveland to see what the Heinen's team is up to.
To learn how to use customer data to grow your business, download a free copy of our report: Retailing in the Age of Me-Commerce: Using Customer Data Science for Competitive Advantage.
Why North America’s health and wellbeing could be the next big retail pharmacy battleground
The retail sector has experienced both of these extremes, with some seeing strong sales while others have been forced into bankruptcy and liquidation.
What we have seen is an acceleration of trends that were in motion prior to the pandemic but are now even more essential for success. One such trend is, understandably, the enhanced focus in retail on health and wellness. This is not a new phenomenon especially within Retail Pharmacy as "buy and build" expansion pushed the market towards saturation. More savvy competition, both within the sector, as well as grocery, mass merchant, and ecommerce began to expand into Health & Beauty (H&B) and prescriptions.
Prescription benefit managers (PBMs) grew increasingly powerful and began demanding lower reimbursement terms and restricted access to customers. Some even set up their own mail order prescription businesses and became direct competitors. This direct attack on the pharmacy business model, combined with the erosion of the convenience advantage forced chains to find other ways to extend their reach. For many, the answer lay in diversification and, specifically, the integration of products and services that had previously sat with dedicated medical providers.
Faced with limited development prospects, retail pharmacies once again needed to re-examine their offering and carve out a distinctive customer proposition.
Clinical decisions
In the US, prescription medicines account for around two-thirds of retail pharmacy revenues¹. As a result, repeat business is vital. Clinical services – a longer-term, more consultative offering than pure dispensary – can help to encourage ongoing business by building a stronger relationship between pharmacist and patient.
With that in mind, it's little wonder that for many retail pharmacies in the mid-2000s, the decision to expand into clinical services seemed like a natural evolution.
CVS, Walgreens and others went through a flurry of acquisitions, purchasing small health service companies up and down the US. In-store facilities were rolled out to capture new clinical business and commence the shift into a wider "health services" offering.
Certain activities, such as immunizations, had successful starts. But the growth of these clinics and their services rapidly dropped off and it soon became apparent that success would not be as readily won as those retailers may have hoped.
One major problem lay deep in the complex inner workings of US healthcare. Limited by their insurance plan benefit structures, customers would often find themselves unable to access the full range of services offered in-store. Clinical service costs, while usually lower than those available at a hospital or doctor's office, would likely be higher than the insured co-pay price paid by the consumer at the latter.
Retailers quickly learned that in order to integrate into the healthcare industry, they would need to learn how to influence and control it as well.
Playing a long game
CVS, which made the strongest initial investment into in-store clinics, has spent more than a decade in pursuit of that goal. Major product decisions, such as the removal of tobacco from stores (itself a $1bn annual business) were executed in the name of a slow repositioning towards healthcare.
Strategic acquisitions have only helped to further that ambition. With its first major vertical healthcare purchase – that of PBM Caremark in 2006 – CVS gained control of the levers of customer access and prescription reimbursement for millions of lives. 13 years later, with the acquisition of Aetna, the company added the ability to provide health, dental, vision and other insurance plans to customers.
Taken to its logical conclusion, this trajectory could lead to the eventual formation of an integrated healthcare system supported by some 10,000 points of service.
There is growing evidence that an empire of that kind is firmly in the retailer's plans. CVS has already announced its intention to evolve clinics into more expansive "Health Hubs", bringing enhanced services to 1,500 locations by 2021. Health Hubs include more space devoted to clinical services and a broader focus on proactive wellness and nutrition alongside extensive health services.
That wider remit is immediately evident in an enhanced product assortment, one that includes numerous specialized items and categories for maintaining health and preventative wellness products –. And, perhaps influenced by insights delivered by Aetna, CVS has also chosen to put significant emphasis on chronic condition management, an area that can provide a pharmacy with some of its most valuable customers.
While CVS is playing a highly strategic game, though, it is by no means the only player to watch.
Save money, live better
As the world's largest retailer, just about anything Walmart does is reason for the competition to pay attention. It may have taken more than a quarter of a century for Walmart to start selling groceries after all, but the retail behemoth now holds top position in that segment in North America by an overwhelming margin.
With that precedent in mind, and in light of Walmart now holding the position as the nation's third largest retail pharmacy provider, it seems likely that another fierce battle for the future of retail pharma is about to begin.
Launched in fall 2019, the Walmart Health Care Clinic serves as a good indicator as to the strength of the company's ambitions.
Staffed to deliver an expansive set of services that range from primary care and disease management through to dental, hearing, nutrition and fitness, these sleek, modern facilities offer the same one-stop-shop approach as Walmart's core store.
Moreover, Health Care Clinics also employ the company's "everyday low pricing" model, something that makes for a compelling proposition regardless of insurance coverage. Medicare and Medicaid are both accepted too, encompassing what is likely a significant number of customers.
The battle within
Similar at their core yet, subtly different, these offerings from CVS and Walmart represent a dramatic shift in healthcare delivery in the US.
While the scale of each remains too small at this point to draw many conclusions, those small differences could carve out room enough for both to flourish. CVS' focus on providing specialist-level health and chronic condition care is different enough from Walmart's "low price, one-stop shop" approach to appeal to a distinct group of customers.
Rather than between each other, the biggest challenges ahead for CVS and Walmart may actually be found within. As both companies make fundamental changes in order to facilitate a future in which healthcare is a significant part of their offering, they will need to focus on evolving their relationships with their long-term customers too.
CVS, for instance, will need to ask customers to reconcile the idea that a company that continues to dominate in snacks and candy is now an active participant in their healthcare. And Walmart, famed for its leadership in building highly efficient operations, will need to scale and sustain a healthcare business rooted in flat, affordable pricing, as well as build the credibility as a viable provider of quality healthcare.
Neither challenge is easy. But if history has taught us anything, it's that when companies of this size decide to redefine an industry from the ground-up, they tend to succeed.
The arrival of Covid-19 also introduces a new reality unthinkable less than a year ago. Health and wellness permeates all aspects of our lives and vigilance is essential to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
- PPE has become a category in its own right with massive and sustained demand across such items as masks and sanitizers.
- Hospital capacity is being tested repeatedly with infection surges and unable to address lower level and elective procedures
- Vaccination is now a global necessity requiring a distribution network capable of rapidly reaching billions of people
The "new normal" isn't really normal at all. Life amid COVID-19 has forced U.S. consumers to adopt new behaviors, dramatically impacting how they shop, work and go about their daily lives. Trips to the grocery store are now once weekly trips to buy essentials and stock the pantry for home cooking. And, vulnerable consumers now rely on online ordering and delivery services they were once reluctant to try.
On average, it takes 66 days for new behaviors to become automatic. The majority of U.S. consumers will cross that milestone under pandemic restrictions very soon. Retailers should prepare now to successfully serve their customers after the "COVID curve."
Join dunnhumby's Jose Gomes, President for North America, and Eric Karlson, Head of Strategy for North America, as they discuss:
- dunnhumby's model of the three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Insights and learnings from retailers around the globe
- How retailers should prepare to adapt their customer strategy for the "new normal" of customer behaviors and expectations
This webinar originally took place on Tuesday, May 5, 2020 as part of an exclusive four-part webinar series with Retail Leader and Progressive Grocer about how to adapt your Customer Strategy now for life after the curve, and possible implications for Customer Engagement, Category Management, and Price & Promotions.
Since our update last week on How Food Retailers and Manufacturers are Serving and Protecting their Customers in the midst of the Coronavirus, food and pharmacy retailers and their suppliers continue to work tirelessly and heroically – in the face of health risks to themselves – to ensure their customers are able to feed themselves and their loved ones.
As the crisis continues to escalate, this week we look at how retailers are putting employees first and protecting them as part of a Customer First strategy, as well as determining the right way to offer value for money to customers and future considerations for pricing and promotion strategies.
Protecting Employees
Many governments around the globe have turned to formally classifying grocery, pharmacy and convenience store employees as "essential" and "emergency" workers due to the critical nature of their role in keeping stores open to feed and care for their communities. However, also understanding that these workers are exposing themselves to possible health risks, many retailers rolled out a series of safety protocols over the last week including:
- Installing Plexiglass shields between cashiers and shoppers at pharmacy and grocery counters and in any still-open service departments
- Implementing employee safety, self-care, and distancing rules
- Providing protective gloves, masks, face screens, and other personal protective equipment
- Increasing the frequency of sanitization efforts on all high-touch surfaces like payment pin pads, card machines, door handles, and conveyor belts
- Altering hours to close stores earlier and close on Sundays to allow time for staff to rest
- Establishing entrance and access controls to ensure crowds are in compliance with safe social distancing practices
- Assigning employees with higher health risks to tasks with the lowest exposure risks, such as backroom work, and ensuring vulnerable groups are on paid leave.
- Implementing contingency plans to possibly close selected stores, based on data projections for available workforce and competitive intensity to ensure that consumers have a competitor choice if a particular store closes.
Sharing Resources between Sectors
Over the last week, we have also seen associations and outside industries providing resources and sharing workers with the grocery sector. The International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA) has partnered with The Food Industry Association (FMI) to provide excess foodservice resources to the grocery sector. In addition, foodservice distributors with unused capacity — including products, transportation and warehousing services — are connecting with food retailers seeking more supply. Some quick service restaurant franchisees have agreed to provide their staff to local grocers to both help their employees continue working and to fill manpower needs for the grocers. Some grocers have partnered with hard hit sectors in the service industry including travel, entertainment and hospitality to have their furloughed workers transition over to grocery stores and distribution centres.
Early take-aways for Price & Promotions Learnings
Each phase of the crisis will necessitate a different level of promotional intensity by retailers. For those regions still in the early weeks of the pandemic, retailers need help in managing intense demand in order to relieve the pressure on store operations.
Here are some of the actions retailers are taking now in Phase 1 of the crisis:
- Reducing promotions by 30 to 40% during the first several weeks of the pandemic. Some grocers are opting to eliminate all promotions.
- Discontinuing promotions that encourage shoppers to stock up.
- Stopping promotional flyers.
- Increasing digital communications through the website and mobile apps. Retailers are pointing shoppers to their most local stores and updating them on store hours.
Key recommendations for Price & Promotions
- Be careful about your pricing practices and how these affect price perception. Keep strong entry prices and be cautious about taking any price increases during this time of relatively inelastic demand to avoid being seen as profiteering. Price-sensitive and vulnerable shoppers are finding this a particularly tough period – so it is important to keep competitively low prices on KVIs (Key Value Items) and those most price-sensitive lines. Online channels should continue to also reflect in-store prices, and certainly not diverge during this time.
- Shoppers need to find value – so don't stop promoting altogether. Fully cutting all promotions should be done with caution and an understanding of local regulations, how the change is being messaged, and with an eye towards consumer perceptions. Continue to use personalised offers and targeted promotions to drive frequency and spending.
- Trade Planning requires new thinking now. Disruption to the traditional model that now puts supply over demand means that more than ever, grocers and CPGs cannot simply follow last year's promotional plan – and we see this disruption continuing for the next 3 to 6 months. Understanding shopper attitudes and future intentions around key events will be an important factor in event planning over the foreseeable future.
Key Price & Promotion Strategies Looking Forward
1. Value for money will become a heightened driver of behaviour as consumers face a depressed global economy. We see this leading to 1) Further Private Brand differentiation and expansion; 2) Deeper investment in base prices on key lines; 3) Fewer, more efficient promotions; 4) Focus on driving cash profit over % margin.
2. A Customer First approach to pricing and promotion (and ranging) is still the right answer. The good news is that consumer-data-led frameworks such as Key Value Items (KVIs), the Balanced Matrix and Category Roles, Seven Levers of Value Perception – will continue to be appropriate for informing strategic and tactical decisions going forward.
3. Disruptive pricing and promotion models are expanding as a result of consumer behavior changes during the pandemic. We believe that the crisis will trigger a tipping point for retailers to switch from the paper flyer to more digital communication through their website and app, with a more urgent value in making this personal. In-store media will become more important and impactful as well. Subscription models are being adopted by retailers such as "Delivery Savers to help manage online demand. Online pure-players are pointing the way to opportunities for new pricing bundles and subscriptions on "destination" areas, in concert with suppliers.
Implications for Retailers and CPGs
- Retailers and CPGs need to reset price and promotion strategies in order to create a more sustainable, consumer data-driven model. Let's face it – the crisis has forced the entire industry into "rehab" to re-examine its practices on many levels. This catharsis gives both retailers and CPGs an opportunity to step-change promotional effectiveness and efficiency, led more by data than by legacy.
- The "Art" of merchandising and the "Science" of analytics need to be blended, now more than ever. For example, as consumers burn through their loaded stocks and pantries, we believe it is imperative for retailers to institute selective pricing and promotional efforts for perishables and fresh items in the basket mix. Conversely, an expected decrease in some core centre store categories – but not all – calls for precision pricing and promotion to minimise overinvestment.
In this time of unprecedented challenges for businesses, employees, and shoppers, Customer First principles should play a key role in every retailer's strategy. Not just for protecting employees and frontline workers so they can continue to serve their communities, but to prepare for the changing Customer needs as the pandemic develops.